Bayesian Inference

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Median reinforcements to a posterior-odds threshold against C/T − 1 from 2 to 107, log-log, for an ideal rate observer at thresholds of 1.4, 10, 30 and 60 nats, with the one-parameter pigeon model 297/(C/T − 1) dashed. Slopes on log(C/T − 1) over C/T 4.5 to 27 are −0.40, −0.53, −0.57 and −0.58 for the observer and −1.00 for the pigeon model; at C/T 4.5 the 60-nat observer reads 83 against the pigeon model's 85. The rat slopes, −0.66 across all groups and −0.82 below C/T 72, are noted.

Nov 2026

Sixty nats

An ideal rate observer's trials-to-threshold slope on the animal axis, log(C/T − 1), stops moving above about 30 nats, at −0.57 to −0.58 over C/T 4.5 to 27, against −0.66 for rats across all groups and −1 by construction for the one-parameter pigeon model. At 60 nats it also lands on the pigeon intercept, 83 trials against 85 at C/T 4.5. One fitted parameter, one free prediction.